The Channel | 2002 | June

13 / 22

14 | the channel
InterMedia has been researching the Internet’s impact on
international broadcasting for six-years. This article draws upon
information from recent InterMedia quantitative and qualitative
projects in combination with other sources that are available in the
public domain.
We will first provide an overview of the projected growth of the
Internet, note some research on media interactions from the U.S, to
provide context, then look at the specific case of South Eastern
Europe and the Balkans, using data from InterMedia surveys
conducted in the spring of 2002.
Worldwide Growth
The worldwide growth of the Internet within the past five years has
been astounding. Various industry sources estimate that by the end
of 2001 there were approximately 400 million Internet users
worldwide, double the number of users in 1999, and more than
four times the estimated number of Internet users there were in
1997.1 While North America still accounts for single largest
proportion of worldwide Internet users, the rest of the world is
rapidly moving forward. The U.S. and Canada rank among the top
markets for Internet use along with Japan, the United Kingdom,
Germany, Scandinavia, France and Italy, as well as Australia and
Brazil. However, the rapidly increasing use in countries such as
South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, China and South Africa make it
clear that the proportion of North American users relative to the
worldwide user community will continue to shrink in the coming
years. Some projections suggest that by the end of next year, the
Asian, African and Latin American communities will account for
nearly a third of the users worldwide, as their growth outstrips that
of the NorthAmerica and Europe. While industry projections show
NorthAmerican use continuing to climb at some 30% between 2000
and the end of this year, the Asian community is projected to grow
by more than 70% during the same period while the LatinAmerican
and African communities double. The European user’s community
is also continuing to grow at a rate between that of North America
andAsia. The projections are that Internet use will expand by some
50% between 2000 and 2002, much of it in the Balkans, Eastern
Europe and former Soviet Union. InterMedia’s annual tracking
research and qualitative work on the Internet in these areas reinforces
the view that the user community in these areas is both very savvy
and growing rapidly. Consumers want access and certainly know
the difference between good products and bad.
While growth numbers are proving to be a benefit to the website
managers for the various international broadcasters, they also are a
cause for considerable concern among the radio and television
departments in the same organizations. The demographic profile
of the typical Internet user in the transitional and developing
international broadcast markets shows them to be young, affluent
and usually well educated. They also generally appear to be
information seekers who consume a wide variety of the mediums,
both domestic and international. For these people, the Internet
quickly becomes an important information source and often the
most trusted of the many media sources.
Potential Affects on International Broadcasting
As the “hit count” for the web sites of international broadcasters
continues to climb to new heights each month, the radio and
television services wonder how this will affect them. Some initial
research conducted in the U.S. on Internet use and leisure time
cannot be encouraging. One on-going research project reports that
American television ratings show that for the first time in the 50-
year history of American television, viewing among children less
than 14 years of age is declining, and posits that the Internet is a
prime suspect for the decline.2 The study points out that youngsters
raised in the Internet age like to use computers and the Internet at
least as much as they do the older media, and this directly affects
their radio and television use. In particular, television consumption
among Internet users is about 28% less than that for non-users in
the U.S. The data show that Internet users still use television as
frequently on a daily basis as do non-users, but their total hours of
viewing are significantly less. The data also show that in the U.S.,
at least for now, frequency and total hours of Internet use tends to
increase among individual users over time, potentially squeezing
out other media activities even more. Is this same trend likely to
affect the international broadcasters of radio and television?
In its research on the Internet and its relationship to the other media
during the past several years, InterMedia found that this American
model of Internet interaction, usually has some regional variations,
though there are some broad similarities. A brief look at one region
with rapidly developing Internet use can serve as an illustration.
Media Interaction in South Eastern Europe
South Eastern Europe and the Balkans have significantly lagged
behind Western Europe in the use of computers and access to the
Internet. However, InterMedia’s annual tracking of Internet use and
projections of the future increases in access for the coming year
show how quickly new technology is spreading throughout the area.
Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Romania and Serbia/
Montenegro all have rapidly increasing user communities. As
international development money has flowed into the region,
One of the lively panel discussions at the AIB’s first annual meeting in Manchester earlier this year centered on the Web and its
impact on international broadcasters. Promoters of web based information want it to be considered as mainstream broadcasting.
Is it indeed replacing conventional broadcasting or is it a conduit to established electronic media?
The Internet
displacing other media?
SERGEI KARPUHKIN/REUTERS
A surfer at an Internet café in Moscow watches an
online interview of Russian PresidentVladimir Putin