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International broadcasters poll Iraq
The Oxford Research International team was thrust into the
international headlines when the Iraq survey was published on 16
March. ORI had conducted the first ever nationally representative
survey of Iraq in the autumn of 2003, and as the company has
extensive experience with sampling societies in transition the
broadcasters came back for a second wave survey. Sahm says he
finds it amazing that four very different broadcasters joined forces
to sponsor the survey and put it on air – it lends objectivity and
credibility to the survey as the four stations represent countries
with differing attitudes to the war in Iraq.
Was it difficult doing the survey? Difficult, yes, says Sahm, but
not the most difficult survey ever, compared to China or Vietnam.
There were four teams running the field work, all trained by Sahm
who stayed in Iraq while interviews were being conducted between
10 and 28 February. Of the initial number of 900 potential Iraqi
interviewers, 130 were chosen to be trained. In the end, there
were 38 interviewers, 11 supervisors and 4 team leaders conducting
interviews with a nationally representative sample of over 2,500
Iraqis from 223 randomly selected sampling points across the
country. The response rate of 96%, says Sahm, was a researcher’s
dream. The ordinary man in the street was very willing to talk: in
9 out of 10 households interviewers were greeted as special guests
– and those chosen as interviewees assumed instant ‘star’ status.
Yes, there were some incidents where a gun was pulled or a knife
was put to someone’s throat or where interviewers had to be taken
into protective custody, but such incidents were relatively few. It
certainly has not put Sahm and his team off as ORI’s website is
now inviting sponsors for the next wave survey in Iraq.
Iraq survey February 2004 – findings
The Iraqi people are optimistic about their future with 70% declaring
that life today is good. The poll results show that a majority (57%)
of Iraqis think things are better now than before the war. However,
85% said regaining public security was the major priority and only
25% had confidence in the coalition forces. More Iraqis (49%) still
believe that the coalition invasion was right compared to those
(39%) who thought it was wrong. When asked about what Iraq
needs at this time, whilst 86% answered “an Iraqi democracy”, 81%
also mentioned “a single strong Iraqi leader”.
•
Overall, 70% of Iraqis say that their life these days is good,
compared with 29% who say their life is bad.
•
Compared with just before the war in 2003, 57% of Iraqis now
say their life is better overall, compared with 19% who say it is
worse and 23% who say it is about the same.
•
71% of Iraqis expect their lives to be better in a year from now,
compared with 6% who expect life to be worse and 9% who say
life will remain about the same.
•
Half of Iraqis (49%) believe the invasion of Iraq by the US-led
coalition was right, compared with 39% who thought it was wrong.
•
Opinion was evenly split on whether the invasion humiliated
Iraq (41%) or liberated it (42%). Almost one in five respondents
(17%) refused to comment.
•
Asked about conditions where they lived, 69% said the
availability of jobs was bad and 64% said the same about the
electricity supply. 72% said conditions in local schools were good
but respondents were evenly split on the whether the local
security situation, supply of clean water and availability of
medical care was good or bad.
•
In terms of the top three priorities in Iraq over the next 12
months, regaining public security rated by far the highest (85%),
followed by holding elections for a national government (30%),
ensuring the majority of Iraqis can make a decent living (30%)
and reviving the economy (28%).
•
Among those who had heard of them, Iraq’s religious leaders
scored the highest level of confidence (70%). But they were closely
followed by the police (68%) and then by the new Iraqi army
(56%). At the other end of the scale, only 25% expressed
To mark the first anniversary of the war in Iraq, the BBC, ABC News, German network ARD and NHK
in Japan sponsored the biggest survey of Iraqis ever undertaken, with field work by Oxford Research
International. More than 2,500 Iraqis were asked about their lives today, and the findings make
interesting reading. The BBC announced the results with “Poll finds most Iraqis say their lives are
better”, the ARD headline ran “Iraqis have little confidence in democracy”, and ABC News summed
the survey up with “While ambivalent about the war, most Iraqis report a better life.”
The Channel
spoke with
Dr. Christoph Sahm
, a founding director of Oxford Research International.
Photos: Oxford Research International
